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Graphic content – May; UK economic data has finally turned for the worse

15th May 2017

In June 2016, immediately before the Brexit referendum, a curious thing happened. Despite the colossal uncertainty facing the UK, economic data actually started to come in above consensus forecasts. Citi’s economic surprise index nudged into positive territory, which meant that UK economic data... Continue reading

Is volatility dead? No, sell credit.

3rd May 2017

There are several arguments that one could currently make for why credit markets look unattractive. These include signals that the US economy is... Continue reading

Graphic content – April; US loan growth is not painting a pretty picture for the US economy

12th April 2017

One of the current big debates in global financial markets is whether investors should believe ‘hard’ rather than ‘soft’ data, where the usually... Continue reading

Graphic content – March; Federal Reserve hike means Treasury sell-off? Actually, historically, quite the opposite.

14th March 2017

The chart below‎ demonstrates the change in US 10-year Treasury yields in the run-up to a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, and what then... Continue reading

Do current TARGET2 liabilities mark the end of the Eurozone, or will they help hold it together?

21st February 2017

As another year of important elections looms, Europe remains a focal point. Downplayed concerns over the possibility of a Le Pen victory are... Continue reading

Chinese real estate wobble suggests growth slowdown ahead

6th February 2017

Western democracies have garnered most of the attention of markets over recent months, but China’s economy remains a key input – and risk... Continue reading

Graphic content – February; The Rise of Populism – Looking beyond inequality

1st February 2017

The recent rise of populism in developed economies looks set to continue, and perhaps even grow further. Upcoming elections in Europe will reveal... Continue reading