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Graphic content – March; Federal Reserve hike means Treasury sell-off? Actually, historically, quite the opposite.

14th March 2017

The chart below‎ demonstrates the change in US 10-year Treasury yields in the run-up to a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, and what then happens in the weeks afterwards. This covers the 70 Fed hikes over the last 37 years. Click graph to enlarge ... Continue reading

Do current TARGET2 liabilities mark the end of the Eurozone, or will they help hold it together?

21st February 2017

As another year of important elections looms, Europe remains a focal point. Downplayed concerns over the possibility of a Le Pen victory are... Continue reading

Chinese real estate wobble suggests growth slowdown ahead

6th February 2017

Western democracies have garnered most of the attention of markets over recent months, but China’s economy remains a key input – and risk... Continue reading

Graphic content – February; The Rise of Populism – Looking beyond inequality

1st February 2017

The recent rise of populism in developed economies looks set to continue, and perhaps even grow further. Upcoming elections in Europe will reveal... Continue reading

A tough start for 2017 consensus trades

18th January 2017

Every year, starting around November, investment banks (and fund managers) begin to drip out their 2017 outlooks for currencies, rates, economies, you name... Continue reading

Graphic content – January; the US dollar is now a ‘risk on’ currency

11th January 2017

The perception of the US dollar is that it’s a safe haven currency; when things go wrong in the world, you want to... Continue reading

“Escape Velocity” and the Return to the Old Normal?

12th December 2016

The surprise victory of Donald Trump, and his planned tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies (infrastructure spending) potentially contain the necessary ingredients to... Continue reading