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Graphic Content – August; Seasonality – the Trump card for the US Dollar?

8th August 2017

The start of 2017 saw near unprecedented speculative positioning linked to global ‘reflation’, Trumpmania meant that nowhere was this more pronounced than in bearish US Treasury positioning, closely followed by US Dollar bullishness. We wrote about how this made little sense at the... Continue reading

Graphic Content – July; spot the difference

11th July 2017

Despite noticeably weaker data in the UK, a weaker government, and the beginning of Brexit negotiations, hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of England... Continue reading

Graphic content – June; the ECB continues to be too optimistic

14th June 2017

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered its headline inflation forecasts, with the latest figures now at 1.5% for 2017, and 1.3% for... Continue reading

Up to an $800 billion negative shift in the demand-supply balance for US Treasuries – could the US yield curve actually steepen?

9th June 2017

Historically, in periods of monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the US yield curve has flattened and eventually inverted as... Continue reading

Graphic content – May; UK economic data has finally turned for the worse

15th May 2017

In June 2016, immediately before the Brexit referendum, a curious thing happened. Despite the colossal uncertainty facing the UK, economic data actually started... Continue reading

Is volatility dead? No, sell credit.

3rd May 2017

There are several arguments that one could currently make for why credit markets look unattractive. These include signals that the US economy is... Continue reading

Graphic content – April; US loan growth is not painting a pretty picture for the US economy

12th April 2017

One of the current big debates in global financial markets is whether investors should believe ‘hard’ rather than ‘soft’ data, where the usually... Continue reading