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Why US inflation might surprisingly fall

3rd September 2018

In a recent post on this website, one of my colleagues made the very reasonable assertion that the largest component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER), might be complicating the overall index due to the inherently... Continue reading

Graphic Content – August; Lower HY issuance masks growing US corporate sector liabilities

14th August 2018

Credit spreads in US high yield have performed better than US investment grade this year. Since the start of the year, spreads on... Continue reading

Graphic Content – July; Is US inflation really that high?

13th July 2018

As the Federal Reserve progresses to the later stages of its hiking cycle, and the market is pricing for the European Central Bank... Continue reading

BoE: “…close to zero compensation for risk in sterling corporate bonds”

27th June 2018

We flagged back in November that corporate bond risk premia were the lowest ever. Our analysis applied to the US corporate bond market,... Continue reading

Graphic Content – June; Global real M1 suggests material risk of recession in 2019

13th June 2018

Global real M1 money supply growth is currently the lowest since the global financial crisis, which does not bode well for global economic... Continue reading

Graphic content – May; the US yield curve is starting to invert

8th May 2018

Many commentators have, probably rightly, started to fret over the shape of the US yield curve. After all, as the San Francisco Fed... Continue reading

Graphic content – April; the real reason why the global economy is stalling?

20th April 2018

The global economy had been ripping since early last summer, at least relative to the lacklustre growth seen post-2008. But there has been... Continue reading