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Graphic Content – June; Global real money supply growth is stalling, suggests material risk of global recession in 2019

13th June 2018

Global real M1 money supply growth is currently the lowest since the global financial crisis, which does not bode well for global economic activity. The relationship between real M1 – narrow money adjusted for inflation – and economic activity makes sense; nominal M1... Continue reading

Graphic content – May; the US yield curve is starting to invert

8th May 2018

Many commentators have, probably rightly, started to fret over the shape of the US yield curve. After all, as the San Francisco Fed... Continue reading

Graphic content – April; the real reason why the global economy is stalling?

20th April 2018

The global economy had been ripping since early last summer, at least relative to the lacklustre growth seen post-2008. But there has been... Continue reading

Graphic Content – March; why LIBOR suggests a US dollar rally

23rd March 2018

Making the headlines recently has been the widening of LIBOR/OIS spreads in the USD market (sometimes also called FRA/OIS spreads, or even other... Continue reading

Fooled by Seasonality

8th March 2018

One characteristic of human beings is our rather weak intuition about probability and randomness, and this permeates our involvement in gambling, financial markets... Continue reading

Italian elections 2018; a great yawn? Or a great surprise?

28th February 2018

The bond market seems rather sanguine regarding the Italian elections; from the highs in early January, spreads with respect to German bunds have... Continue reading

Graphic content – February: aggressive US Treasury selloff is historically a buying opportunity

20th February 2018

People talk of the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ as the modern-day equivalent of the enormous 1994 bond rout, where both occasions saw the Federal... Continue reading