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Graphic Content – July; Is US inflation really that high?

13th July 2018

As the Federal Reserve progresses to the later stages of its hiking cycle, and the market is pricing for the European Central Bank (ECB) to start hiking midway through next year, it’s worth taking a step back and comparing inflation between the two... Continue reading

BoE: “…close to zero compensation for risk in sterling corporate bonds”

27th June 2018

We flagged back in November that corporate bond risk premia were the lowest ever. Our analysis applied to the US corporate bond market,... Continue reading

Graphic Content – June; Global real M1 suggests material risk of recession in 2019

13th June 2018

Global real M1 money supply growth is currently the lowest since the global financial crisis, which does not bode well for global economic... Continue reading

Graphic content – May; the US yield curve is starting to invert

8th May 2018

Many commentators have, probably rightly, started to fret over the shape of the US yield curve. After all, as the San Francisco Fed... Continue reading

Graphic content – April; the real reason why the global economy is stalling?

20th April 2018

The global economy had been ripping since early last summer, at least relative to the lacklustre growth seen post-2008. But there has been... Continue reading

Graphic Content – March; why LIBOR suggests a US dollar rally

23rd March 2018

Making the headlines recently has been the widening of LIBOR/OIS spreads in the USD market (sometimes also called FRA/OIS spreads, or even other... Continue reading

Fooled by Seasonality

8th March 2018

One characteristic of human beings is our rather weak intuition about probability and randomness, and this permeates our involvement in gambling, financial markets... Continue reading