What’s next for bund yields?

17th April 2019

Bund yields (and bond yields in general) have defied bond bears for many years, and this year has seen more of the same: in March, 10-year bund... Read more

Graphic content; Markets are pricing in an end to currency wars. We’re not so sure.

16th April 2019

Rates and Foreign Exchange (FX) markets have recently taken a divergent view on the global economic outlook. While the US yield curve recently began signalling that a... Read more

Graphic content; Italy continues to trade cheap to other Eurozone assets

28th March 2019

We last wrote about Italian sovereign bonds in October 2018, when we highlighted that the market was overreacting to Italy’s deficit… Read more

Graphic content; What’s driving the risk rally? Central Banks

28th February 2019

Financial markets in December shocked many investors; the S&P 500, a bellwether for global stock markets, fell around 9%, its worst month since October 2008, the peak... Read more

Graphic content – January; Explaining Eurozone weakness

29th January 2019

January’s chart of the month comes from Credit Suisse. We’ve written before back in October 2017 about how a strong Chinese economy was supporting Eurozone growth through... Read more

Graphic Content – December; Real M1 don’t lie

19th December 2018

Never mind chart of the month, more like chart of the year. Back in June we flagged that global money supply growth, adjusted for inflation, had had... Read more

Graphic content – November; US Data Seasonality

29th November 2018

US data, very unusually for this time of year, is coming in below expectations Back in August 2017, I mentioned on this blog that US economic data... Read more

Graphic content – October; Italian bonds are pricing >20% chance of default over 5 years

22nd October 2018

We find the market reaction to the ongoing Italian deficit drama baffling. As the chart below shows, Italy has been one of the best behaved fiscally over... Read more

Graphic content – September; is Trump right to want a lower oil price?

26th September 2018

Recent tweets by President Donald Trump have berated OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) for their role in contributing to higher oil prices. Given the disruption... Read more

BBBs: Buyers Better Beware?

24th September 2018

As we reach the tenth year of recovery and expansion, one of the outcomes has been the proliferation of investment grade corporate debt as companies have taken... Read more