Graphic content – November; US Data Seasonality

29th November 2018

US data, very unusually for this time of year, is coming in below expectations Back in August 2017, I mentioned on this blog that US economic data... Read more

Graphic content – October; Italian bonds are pricing >20% chance of default over 5 years

22nd October 2018

We find the market reaction to the ongoing Italian deficit drama baffling. As the chart below shows, Italy has been one of the best behaved fiscally over... Read more

Graphic content – September; is Trump right to want a lower oil price?

26th September 2018

Recent tweets by President Donald Trump have berated OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) for their role in contributing to higher oil prices. Given the disruption... Read more

BBBs: Buyers Better Beware?

24th September 2018

As we reach the tenth year of recovery and expansion, one of the outcomes has been the proliferation of investment grade corporate debt as companies have taken... Read more

Why US inflation might surprisingly fall

3rd September 2018

In a recent post on this website, one of my colleagues made the very reasonable assertion that the largest component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI),... Read more

Graphic Content – August; Lower HY issuance masks growing US corporate sector liabilities

14th August 2018

Credit spreads in US high yield have performed better than US investment grade this year. Since the start of the year, spreads on US investment grade have... Read more

Graphic Content – July; Is US inflation really that high?

13th July 2018

As the Federal Reserve progresses to the later stages of its hiking cycle, and the market is pricing for the European Central Bank (ECB) to start hiking... Read more

BoE: “…close to zero compensation for risk in sterling corporate bonds”

27th June 2018

We flagged back in November that corporate bond risk premia were the lowest ever. Our analysis applied to the US corporate bond market, given that public daily... Read more

Graphic Content – June; Global real M1 suggests material risk of recession in 2019

13th June 2018

Global real M1 money supply growth is currently the lowest since the global financial crisis, which does not bode well for global economic activity. The relationship between... Read more

Graphic content – May; the US yield curve is starting to invert

8th May 2018

Many commentators have, probably rightly, started to fret over the shape of the US yield curve. After all, as the San Francisco Fed stated back in March;... Read more