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Graphic content – November; US Data Seasonality

29th November 2018

US data, very unusually for this time of year, is coming in below expectations Back in August 2017, I mentioned on this blog that US economic data had exhibited a strong and consistent seasonal bias since 2010. Relative to consensus forecasts, high frequency US... Continue reading

Graphic content – October; Italian bonds are pricing >20% chance of default over 5 years

22nd October 2018

We find the market reaction to the ongoing Italian deficit drama baffling. As the chart below shows, Italy has been one of the... Continue reading

Graphic content – September; is Trump right to want a lower oil price?

26th September 2018

Recent tweets by President Donald Trump have berated OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) for their role in contributing to higher oil... Continue reading

BBBs: Buyers Better Beware?

24th September 2018

As we reach the tenth year of recovery and expansion, one of the outcomes has been the proliferation of investment grade corporate debt... Continue reading

Why US inflation might surprisingly fall

3rd September 2018

In a recent post on this website, one of my colleagues made the very reasonable assertion that the largest component of the U.S.... Continue reading

Graphic Content – August; Lower HY issuance masks growing US corporate sector liabilities

14th August 2018

Credit spreads in US high yield have performed better than US investment grade this year. Since the start of the year, spreads on... Continue reading

Graphic Content – July; Is US inflation really that high?

13th July 2018

As the Federal Reserve progresses to the later stages of its hiking cycle, and the market is pricing for the European Central Bank... Continue reading