Fooled by Seasonality

8th March 2018

One characteristic of human beings is our rather weak intuition about probability and randomness, and this permeates our involvement in gambling, financial markets... Continue reading

Italian elections 2018; a great yawn? Or a great surprise?

28th February 2018

The bond market seems rather sanguine regarding the Italian elections; from the highs in early January, spreads with respect to German bunds have... Continue reading

Graphic content – February: aggressive US Treasury selloff is historically a buying opportunity

20th February 2018

People talk of the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ as the modern-day equivalent of the enormous 1994 bond rout, where both occasions saw the Federal... Continue reading

‘Yield beta’ – perhaps the most important consideration if you own any inflation-linked bonds

26th January 2018

  Many investors have exposure to inflation-linked bonds, whether it’s within a diversified fixed income portfolio or a multi asset portfolio. The difficulty... Continue reading

Graphic Content – January; underlying fragility of the US corporate sector

17th January 2018

As we’ve mentioned in recent months, total risk premia on US corporate bonds is at its lowest level ever. Meanwhile, the debt that... Continue reading

Graphic Content – December; UK wage growth is about to surge

5th December 2017

As in many countries, wage growth in the UK has been missing in action, even as the unemployment rate has fallen to a... Continue reading